During the late night hours of Friday, May 14, Cyclone Tauktae intensified into a Cyclonic Storm near Lakshadweep. Further intensification is expected in the next 24 hours, as the system is likely to transform into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm by Sunday.
According to the India Meteorological Department’s latest forecast update, Cyclonic Storm Tauktae (pronounced as Tau’Te) moved north-northwestwards at a speed of about 9 kmph during the early hours of Saturday. As of 5:30 a.m. IST this morning, it was located over east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea, about 350 km south-southwest of Panjim, Goa.
As it continues to travel north-northwestwards while being supported by high sea surface temperatures of 30°C, it will intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during the next 12 hours, and into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm during the subsequent 12 hours.
The GFS model used by the IMD indicates the cyclone could make landfall over Gujarat, between Porbandar and Naliya, during the afternoon or evening hours of Tuesday, May 18.
But on the contrary, the ECMWF model has predicted a more eastward, closer-to-coast track as compared to the IMD, in which case the cyclone may make landfall around Surat on Monday night while packing 118-165 kmph wind speed. If this prediction turns out to be true, India’s west coast may also witness more severe rainfall and wind than the current forecast indicates.
Heavy rainfall across the western coast
3-day rain forecast over India’s west coast from Saturday to Monday.
(TWC Met Team)
As Cyclone Tauktae keeps providing moisture from the Arabian Sea, the entire western coast of India will experience intense rainfall activity and onshore winds over the next 3-4 days. The detailed forecast for all the western states is as follows:
Lakshadweep: Isolated heavy to very heavy rains on Saturday, and isolated heavy falls on Sunday.
Kerala: Heavy to very heavy falls at a few places on Saturday, and at isolated places on Sunday and Monday.
Tamil Nadu: Heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over the Ghat district of Tamil Nadu on Saturday.
Karnataka: Heavy to very heavy falls at a few places, with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over coastal and adjoining ghat districts of South Interior Karnataka on Saturday. Heavy falls at isolated places on Sunday.
Maharashtra: Heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over South Konkan and Goa and at isolated places over North Konkan on Saturday. Heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places across the region on Sunday.
Gujarat: Rainfall may commence from Sunday with a significant increase during the subsequent two days. Heavy falls are expected at isolated places over the coastal districts of Saurashtra on Sunday, with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places on Monday, and heavy to very heavy falls at a few places from Monday onwards. Isolated extremely heavy falls are on the cards over Saurashtra & Kutch on Tuesday.
Rajasthan: Heavy falls predicted at isolated places over southwest Rajasthan on Tuesday and Wednesday.
In view of the above predictions, the IMD has issued a red warning over Kerala and Coastal & South Interior Karnataka on Saturday. The advisory instructs residents to ‘take action’ and protect themselves from the rough weather.
Meanwhile, orange alerts have been issued over the remaining subdivisions of Coastal Maharashtra, North Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu for the next two days. The alert urges residents to ‘be prepared’ for rough conditions.
