The reported decision of British prime minister Boris Johnson to suspend – or “prorogue” – parliament for over a month as the clock ticks down to the Brexit date of October 31st will provoke a huge storm in the UK and almost certainly incite a parliamentary rebellion that his government is likely to lose.
This is most probably his intention. Such a defeat will likely lead to a general election in early October – if not before – in which Johnson will enjoy significant advantages. Some recent polls suggest that the Conservatives enjoy a strong lead and Johnson’s novelty as a prime minister, as well as his enormous capacity to speak to voters and be listened to, will make him a hot favourite to beat his rivals, especially Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn, in a short, sharp campaign.
Crucially, Johnson can go to the country before Brexit – enabling him to run on a promise of delivering Brexit with or without a deal on October 31st, his already familiar mantra since taking office in July. Equally crucially, the election will come before the negative effects of a no-deal Brexit are felt by voters. So Johnson is in a pretty good position to fight an election in the coming weeks.
Why would he want an election? The first rule of politics: you have to be able to count. Johnson has no parliamentary majority, and he watched – and participated – as Theresa May was destroyed by her inability to command a majority in the House of Commons.
Whether Johnson presides over a deal, or a no-deal Brexit, he would face the same tyranny of the parliamentary numbers. The effects of a no-deal would destroy his government; but a deal might do the same, as Tory ultra-Brexiteers – and perhaps the DUP, depending on how a new deal treated the North – would surely stand against it.
